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Vitalik Buterin Reveals His $70k Winning Prediction Market Strategy

Vitalik made a 16% return through Polymarket in 2025.
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Jan 28, 2026 • 1 min read

During an exclusive interview with Singapore-based media outlet Foresight News, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin talked about his utilization of prediction markets, detailing a strategy that profited $70k last year.

What's the Scoop?

  • Exclusive Interview: Although Vitalik's prediction market strategy is the most headline-grabbing tidbit of his interview with Foresight News, the conversation was expansive in nature, reflecting on crypto's application failures and why Ethereum may be the last defense against an AI-dominated future.
  • Prediction Market Strategy: Vitalik says he earned $70k on Polymarket last year by betting against irrational market sentiment, deploying $440k in capital to produce an approximately 16% return. His strategy involves looking for markets (particularly related to politics and technology) that are in "crazy mode" and then betting that "crazy things won't happen."
  • Potential Risks: Vitalik cautions that prediction markets remain exposed to oracle risk, with existing solutions either overly centralized or structurally flawed. The interview quotes Buterin as saying, "I have always hoped that we can find a better solution in the future."

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