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Zuckerberg Directs Meta to Build a Prediction Markets App
Meta is building a prediction markets app called Arena to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, likely starting with a points system rather than real-money betting.
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Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small Meta team to build a prediction markets app, internally called "Arena," that would compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a New York Times report.
What's the Scoop?
- The App: Arena would function as a standalone app, separate from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Users would likely use points, rather than money, at launch, though Meta has not ruled out eventually introducing real wagers.
- Why Now: The effort is part of a broader Zuckerberg push to build standalone apps around emerging online behavior, driven partly by concerns that Facebook and Instagram have reached saturation. Arena follows Meta's well-worn playbook of cloning fast-growing competitors and chasing trends (i.e. the Metaverse).
- Meta's Track Record: This is not Meta's first attempt. In 2020, it launched Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction app using a points system, and shuttered it in 2022. Meta has historically struggled to get standalone apps adopted. Insiders cautioned that Arena remains in development and may end up not be released.