Investors Pile on the Risk
Crypto tokens remain in pursuit of all-time highs while TradFi indices set new ones! The Risk Rally continues, but how long can it last?
The S&P 500 (SPX), an index of the 500 largest stocks trading on US exchanges, has now closed out 16 of its last 18 weeks green, with the near uninterrupted 25% bull run since late October providing strong confirmation for the broader market’s risk-on appetite.
While the rally has certainly impressed, the weekly SPX RSI indicator currently reads 76. The last time RSI reached such overextended levels on a weekly basis was just prior to the COVID crash in early 2020.
Crypto funding rates on perpetuals, which increased sharply into the end of February, remain elevated across the market but have cooled today on majors BTC and ETH, providing much welcome funding payment relief to levered longs on these assets.
The sudden uptick in crypto prices appears to have brought some amount of external retail participation back to the party, with Coinbase surging to become the 14th most popular free finance app and 143rd most popular free app overall in Apple’s App Store.
As is the case with the S&P 500, Bitcoin’s RSI is pushing higher, topping 85 on the weekly chart. While technically bought, it is important to note that prior bull markets have kicked off at these levels; further participation from external capital, be it through Coinbase or newly established spot crypto ETFs, could provide the fuel for continuation.
