How to Prepare for the 2025 Bull Market | Arthur Hayes
In this episode of Bankless, we sit down with Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and macro commentator, to explore his bold investment strategies for 2025. Recorded on U.S. election day, Arthur shares his unique view that regardless of the election outcome, one reality remains: money printing continues, reinforcing his long crypto stance. We dive into his perspective on the Chinese property bubble, the Fed’s looming decisions, and the possibility of a global recession. Arthur also opens up his portfolio, discusses why he's bullish on ETH (with a twist), and offers insights on positioning amidst potential conflicts. Thought-provoking and controversial as always, Arthur Hayes brings his unfiltered insights on the state of crypto and the global economy.
Arthur Hayes on Navigating 2025: Investment Strategies, Macro Insights, and Betting on Crypto
In a world of economic uncertainty and potential financial turbulence, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom Fund, offers a strikingly clear perspective on investment strategies for 2025. Recently, Arthur joined us on Bankless to share his outlook on global economic trends, including U.S. election implications, Chinese property market risks, the Fed's strategy, and the potential for a recession or conflict. In true Arthur Hayes style, he pulls no punches, arguing that in an era of monetary easing and persistent liquidity injections, crypto is the ultimate asset class.
Money Printing Knows No Bounds – Why Election Outcomes Don’t Matter
We recorded this episode on U.S. election day, though for Arthur, the results don’t change the landscape. He argues that regardless of who holds office, one pattern will persist: fiscal spending and liquidity injection. In his view, the tendency to "print" will be the economic strategy of choice to address financial crises, and for investors, this translates into a single imperative—going long on crypto. For Arthur, this means navigating away from fiat's instability and finding safer ground in assets like BTC and ETH.
The Chinese Property Bubble – A Coming Crisis with Global Impact
One of the largest ticking time bombs, according to Arthur, is the Chinese property bubble, which he considers the biggest in history. With this in mind, he predicts China will launch an unprecedented liquidity injection to combat the risks posed by an unstable real estate market. This influx of yuan, he argues, may even rival the U.S. dollar stimulus injected during the COVID-19 pandemic, making Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies ideal hedges against what he describes as inevitable yuan devaluation.
The Fed’s Next Move and the Treasury’s Role in Market Dynamics
Arthur also delves into the Fed’s potential next steps, arguing that the Treasury’s demand for liquidity is siphoning “oxygen” from other market sectors. In his view, the Treasury’s tightening grip means less room for other assets to grow—an environment where crypto thrives due to its unique position outside traditional financial constraints.
ETH, BTC, and Arthur’s Crypto Portfolio Strategy
On crypto, Arthur reveals a bullish stance on Ethereum, though not for the reasons typically discussed in Bankless circles. While our community often considers ETH a form of “ultrasound money,” Arthur questions its viability as a long-term financial asset in the same way BTC is positioned. His debate with us led to interesting insights on whether Ethereum will ultimately play a more utility-oriented role or evolve as a store of value akin to Bitcoin.
Preparing for a Volatile World: Recession, War, and Wealth Preservation
In an environment rife with geopolitical tension, from U.S.-China strains to conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, Arthur’s approach to wealth preservation is strategic yet cautious. For him, the worst mistake would be to make investment decisions based on alliances in these conflicts. He stresses the importance of holding assets that are resilient to fiat debasement and resistant to geopolitical shifts.
Final Thoughts: Arthur Hayes’ Advice for Crypto Investors
Arthur leaves our listeners with advice on avoiding typical pitfalls in the crypto cycle and making the most of the next leg in the market. His guidance is both practical and provocative—true to form for this former derivatives trader turned crypto thought leader. For those navigating the complexities of today’s market, his insights provide a roadmap for an unpredictable future.
Listen in to get the full breakdown of Arthur’s insights and takeaways for 2025.