Finding 1,000x Assets & Asymmetric Returns | Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital
Catching the Next Bitcoin: Lessons in Asymmetric Investing from Dan Morehead
How do you spot the next asset that could 1000x? How do you find Bitcoin when it's still trading at $65?
For Dan Morehead, the answer lies in recognizing patterns most investors overlook. As the founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, Dan is no stranger to making bold, contrarian bets. His July 2013 investment letter, titled "Very Timely: We Should Buy Bitcoin Now at $65," is the stuff of legends. Over the following two years, Pantera accumulated nearly 2% of the world’s bitcoin supply. Fast forward to today, and the fund boasts a lifetime return of over 131,000%.
In our conversation with Dan, we unpack the journey that led him to Bitcoin in 2013.
Spotting Bitcoin Early
In the early 2010s, Bitcoin was far from a mainstream investment. It was dismissed as niche, volatile, and speculative. Yet Dan saw something others didn’t. He likened buying Bitcoin to purchasing gold in 1000 B.C. – an asset class so nascent that 99% of financial wealth had yet to engage with it. His belief? When they do, the upside would be astronomical.
"Bitcoin is either going to be worth zero, or it’s going to multiply by orders of magnitude," Dan reflected.
But spotting Bitcoin was only half the battle. Raising capital in those days was grueling. After Bitcoin’s 87% crash in December 2013, interest faded fast. By 2016, Dan was traveling the world, pitching Bitcoin to 170 investors. The result? A mere $1 million raised.
“The management fees were $17,241. A hundred bucks per meeting,” Dan recalls with a laugh.
Yet perseverance paid off.
The Road to 1000x
Buying Bitcoin in size was no easy task in those days. Exchanges had daily limits as low as $50. Banking relationships were fragile. Yet Pantera persisted, navigating the obstacles to acquire tens of thousands of BTC.
Today, the fund’s return stands at 131,165% – net of fees and expenses.
Where Are We Now?
Dan believes we’re still early in Bitcoin’s journey. While Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, he argues that the market is perhaps only 5% or 20% of the way to full adoption.
His long-term price target? $740,000 by 2028.
“I think it’ll take a few years longer, but there’s a decent chance of getting there,” Dan predicts.
Trump, Cycles, and the Future
The conversation shifts to politics and policy. What will the Trump administration mean for crypto? Could a strategic Bitcoin reserve be on the table? Dan sees 2026 to 2030 as pivotal years, with Congress potentially becoming pro-crypto and significant policy developments in play.
Beyond Bitcoin, Dan’s interests now span tokenization, real-world assets (RWAs), and the intersection of AI and crypto.
Finding the Next 1000x
For those who feel they’ve missed out on Bitcoin, Dan offers hope.
“Bitcoin has doubled this year. Some think they’ve missed it. But we’re still early.”
His advice? Look for assets that are widely misunderstood and underappreciated. The next asymmetric bet might just be around the corner.
If Dan’s story teaches us anything, it’s that recognizing transformative assets isn’t about luck. It’s about having the conviction to bet big when others won’t.