ETH's Underwater Supply Has Matched Its Post-FTX Capitulation Low

Glassnode data shows roughly 54 million ETH is currently held at an unrealized loss, the deepest supply-in-loss reading since November 2022, when the post-FTX collapse bottomed ETH out near $1,100.

What's the Scoop?

• The Signal: Glassnode's ETH Supply in Loss metric tracks tokens bought above the current market price. At ~54M ETH underwater, the reading has now matched the November 2022 capitulation point, which marked that cycle's bottom. Most of the underwater supply today traces to ETH's Aug. 2025 peak near $4,950.
• Potential Bottoming: In November 2022, ETH sell pressure largely exhausted itself before ETH's subsequent recovery over the next few years. The current reading doesn't guarantee a repeat, but it puts today's loss profile in the same territory as that period.
• Tom Lee's Timing: Bitmine chairman Tom Lee has been buying directly into this setup, arguing price weakness doesn't reflect improving network fundamentals. At 5.62M tokens (~$9.66B), Bitmine is by far the largest corporate ETH holder and has been accumulating through one of the deepest supply-in-loss readings on record.
• What Next: It's possible ETH is on the verge of bottoming this cycle, or it's possible this isn't peak exhaustion but rather just a milestone on the way lower. Only time will tell, but Ethereum as a network is much more impressive today than it was in 2022. If the 2022 analogy holds at all, Ethereum's current strengths could mean any recovery from this level has more durable legs than the last one did.