Ethereum Season Is Here | How Far Can ETH Go? | Ben Cowen

Ben:
[0:00] If alts are down 44% against Ethereum since April, what else do you call it

Ben:
[0:04] other than Ethereum season, right? I mean, basically everything in crypto, including Bitcoin, since April has been bleeding to Ethereum. At the current time, Ethereum is giving better risk-adjusted returns than altcoins because by being in Ethereum, it's basically giving you the upside that an altcoin might get, but it's also protecting you from the downside risk.

David:
[0:27] Bankless Nation, we got Ben Cowan back on the podcast today. We had him on a year ago to talk about the downtrend of ETH BTC. Six months later, also six months ago, we had Ben back on to talk about how ETH BTC was about to go home. And then today, I think we are here to complete that journey to talk about the rise of ETH BTC and where Ben thinks it's going after it went home. Ben, welcome back to Bankless.

Ben:
[0:52] Thanks for having me here. It's been it's been a pretty crazy journey for Ethereum over the last few years.

David:
[0:57] Yeah. OK, so you are famous for calling for ETH to go home. You said it for years. First, ETH was going home. And then I think you'll agree, ETH then went home,

David:
[1:06] which I think now begs the question. Now that ETH has gone home, if you if you do think that it has completed its journey home, where is ETH going now that it's gone home?

Ben:
[1:14] I mean, so my base case now is that it's on its journey to all time highs. I feel satisfied, right, with it having gone home. That was kind of why I was always kind of like against the idea of Ethereum breaking the new highs in prior years. And one of the things, you know, we have to obviously talk about, right, is the because ETH went home, it allowed, in my opinion, it allowed ETH Bitcoin to bottom. Right. And that's like that's the bigger story. Right. Because, I mean, ETH USD going up is great. Right. We all love to see ETH USD go up. But if it's lagging Bitcoin, then that's like a problem. And it kind of signifies that it doesn't truly have momentum behind it if it's just lagging Bitcoin. But if ETH Bitcoin is going up while ETH is going up, then it shows you where a lot of that momentum is. So like, just briefly, if you see my screen here, you know, this is the ETH USD chart. I was basically operating under the assumption that ETH Bitcoin would not bottom until it went to its regression line, right? Like until it actually dropped down. And that's, it kind of felt like the missing piece to me for like a long time this cycle was that like, all right, we need to have Bitcoin go down during a time when it normally doesn't. and it went down in early 2025.

Ben:
[2:37] And so what ended up happening is it allowed ETH to break down here below this sort of this trend line. And the same things happened in the last couple of cycles, actually, right? There's been like similar trend lines. And whenever it breaks down from that trend line each cycle, that's when ETH Bitcoin bottoms, right? Every single cycle, right? 2016, you can see ETH Bitcoin bottomed right there when it went to the regression line. And then the next cycle, 2019, it bottomed here at the regression line. And it also had a double bottom a little bit later on. It did go lower into the regression band. But then this time, to me, like it looks like it just bottomed here again after

Ben:
[3:14] it went to the regression band. So yeah, I think that it's most likely on a path to all-time highs. Doesn't mean it's going to be a straight shot there. If you, you know, a couple of weeks ago, Ethereum was moving a lot and, you know, we saw things get a little bit euphoric. But I think right now we're just kind of cooling off for hopefully a move up to all-time highs within the next few months, hopefully sooner.

David:
[3:36] So the US dollar price of ETH has been higher in the not distant past. And this happened after the all-time high price for ETH was like 4,800, 4,900 in 2021, end of 2021. And it's touched 4,100 at the start of 2024 and like March of 2024, it's touched 4,000 just again in December of 2024. So in terms of the dollar price, The ETH dollar price has been higher. But I think what you're saying is it touched 4,000 and above under a paradigm of Bitcoin strength and Bitcoin momentum. And it wasn't able to capture new dollar highs. Ether wasn't able to capture new dollar highs because it was under a paradigm of Bitcoin momentum. And so I think what I'm interpreting you is like we needed Ether to bounce off of the Bitcoin ratio lows in order for Ether to have the momentum in order to capture its all time highs. So does that mean that this is a momentum based move from Ether? How would you? Categorize or classify the current like paradigm that either the asset is in?

Ben:
[4:38] I think there are a lot of holders that maybe didn't really believe in it. And you kind of saw a lot of people capitulating back in, you know, February, March and April, which is, you know, that's around the time, like when it's dropping interest regression, and that's when those people capitulate. So I kind of feel like the regression band itself, kind of, it kind of shows you, like when it's down there, then you've kind of, you've finally gotten rid of the people that are going to sell, you know, if prices doesn't go their way for, you know, some period of time, right? They, you know, they're not, they're, they're, they're, you know, they're, what do they call it? I mean, not, it retails one of them, but they're like, you know.

Ben:
[5:14] In sports, they call it sort of like a fair weather fans, right? Like you hear it on when it's going up, but the minute it goes down, you're like, Oh, I'm just going to sell it for something else. And, and, you know, everyone was sort of dunking on Ethereum back then because

Ben:
[5:25] it bled against Bitcoin for so long, but really, and, and we'll talk more about this. I'm sure the altcoin market doesn't, you know, doesn't really go up against Bitcoin itself until ETH Bitcoin bottoms, right? So I think that was what a lot of people missed that kept calling for alt-season. It's like, you can't really have alt-season if ETH Bitcoin keeps going down because ETH is arguably sort of the index for the altcoin market, right? Like I think it kind of exists somewhere between Bitcoin and altcoins. And if you look at the last, again, if you look at the last couple of cycles, when Ethereum made the rally to all-time highs over here in 2017, it was after ETH Bitcoin had bottomed, right? And then when it made the rally to all-time highs in 2021, again, it was after ETH Bitcoin had bottomed. And of course, after Ethereum, quote unquote, went home. And so that's why, because I feel, I think that ETH has bottomed against Bitcoin, I think there's a really high chance it has for this market cycle. I think it leaves open, it opens the door for new all-time highs, right? Like, obviously, nothing's a guarantee. But I think the most likely outcome is for Ethereum to rally to all time highs. And it's probably going I mean, it should happen this year, if I had to guess.

Ben:
[6:35] Again, it doesn't mean we can't consolidate for a bit. And we might have a little bit of trouble breaking above 4800 on the first approach. But, you know, I think that because it's gone home, the narrative has shifted. And also, by the way, it's not it is going up against Bitcoin, right? A little bit, right? And maybe we can talk about where it might go. But what I think is the bigger underlying story here.

Ben:
[6:59] Is that for a long time, people that were holding altcoins were kind of dunking on Ethereum, right? They were like, you know, dunking on it. It wasn't really doing anything. But now after ETH went to the regression ban, you're seeing the exact opposite.

Ben:
[7:12] Look at this. So ETH went to the regression ban in April, right? Now, I often talk about this chart, total three minus USCT divided by Bitcoin, right? This is the altcoin market against Bitcoin. But really a more interesting chart to me right now than this one is this same chart, but divided by ETH market cap. Because if you look at that, what you'll notice is that since April, right, since April, since Ethereum went to its regression ban, alts are down 44% against Ethereum. And I think that is going to continue to provide ETH with some liquidity, like momentum. Like if people are like, well, where is the money going to come from? I think a lot of it could just come from people converting their altcoins back to ETH. Because at the end of the day, you know, in the cryptoverse, there's only a few assets that provide a lot of value, in my opinion, right? Like there's, you know, hundreds of thousands of coins. Most of them are absolutely worthless, right? But I think that, you know, I think Ethereum has value. And I think that, you know,

Ben:
[8:12] there was this nice rally by alts against ETH. But while they were rallying against ETH, they were bleeding against Bitcoin, right? So it's still, in my mind, they were going up against ETH. They're bleeding against Bitcoin. So it still made sense to hold Bitcoin.

Ben:
[8:24] Now, they're bleeding against ETH. So it seems like why go risk it in a lot of altcoins when two things. First of all, they're bleeding against Ethereum. And it kind of reminds me of last cycle when I said, well, what if it bleeds against Ethereum, right? Like, I think we're at that phase of the cycle where a lot of things are bleeding against Ethereum. And the other thing is while Ethereum arguably went home, and I think it's done. Like, I think that it's going home for this cycle is done with. Like, I think it already fulfilled that. But alts, on the other hand, I still think need to go a little bit lower on their Bitcoin pairs. And again, feel free to cut me off at any moment because I'll just ramble and.

David:
[9:04] Ramble and ramble. I'm loving this so far. Yeah, I'm tracking.

Ben:
[9:07] Yeah, but look at this. You see this ETH Bitcoin low right here and this pullback? So the low in April by ETH on its Bitcoin pair, it was lower in April than in June, right? So June was a higher low. But if you look at altcoins, the June low was a lower low. compared to where it was.

David:
[9:25] So Ether found its strength. All coins did not find its strength.

Ben:
[9:29] Exactly. So Ethereum found its strength because it went to where it needed to go. And maybe looking at it like this isn't the best way. Look at ETH dominance, right? ETH dominance went to the same spot it bottomed out last cycle, right? So you could argue that ETH dominance went home. You could look at the ETH Bitcoin market cap ratio and see here that it basically went to where it bottomed out around last cycle, right? So to me, that's where a lot of the strength is coming from. It's because it just went to where it needed to go to cleanse those people out. And now the momentum has shifted and the narrative has shifted. But the altcoin market, that narrative hasn't yet arrived, right? And I don't think it is going to arrive. It might still happen. I think there's still a chance you'll see alts do kind of what Ethereum is doing right now against Bitcoin.

Ben:
[10:21] But I think it's a little bit further out, right? I think that right now, we're sort of in the, let's call it the blue chip phase of the market cycle, right? Bitcoin and Ethereum, because those are the only two blue chips. Those are the only two coins that I consider blue chips. Obviously, a lot of people would disagree. But when you look at the last two market cycles for Bitcoin dominance plus Ethereum dominance, and I think this might be a better thing to track now than just Bitcoin dominance. Because if ETH Bitcoin has bottomed, then ETH dominance likely goes up, right? And so that'll start to detract a little bit from Bitcoin dominance. But you could still see Bitcoin dominance go higher if altcoins continue to bleed against Bitcoin, even if ETH goes up. So what I'm looking at right now is this Bitcoin dominance plus Ethereum dominance chart that two cycles ago topped at 85%, at least the history we have. And then last cycle topped about 85%.

Ben:
[11:16] And I'm just wondering, like, it's now, right now it's at 73%. And it might sound crazy, right? It might sound crazy, but like, What if Bitcoin dominance rallies back to 66% at some point? And what if during that same time, you see a rally by ETH dominance as well? Or maybe they don't happen at the same exact time, right? Like maybe ETH dominance rallies for one month and Bitcoin dominance, and then they collectively go higher. And it just feels like the altcoin market is dead. And then by that point, you might actually get all Bitcoin pairs at the range lows. And then by that point, maybe they can get the move that Ethereum is getting right now. But in the short term, if I'm being honest, I think that alts are going to keep bleeding against Ethereum.

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David:
[14:31] 0.018 all the way to 0.032. 0.032 still feels low in the grand scheme of things, but it's at least a doubling versus Bitcoin. To me, this is just what Ethereum season looks like. Ethereum has found its strength. It's not coming out of Bitcoin's strength. Bitcoin is maintaining its strength, but it's not more strong than Ether. Ether has found its strength. It's gaining in market share and also continuing to bleed.

David:
[14:53] To me, that is like, oh, this is Ethereum season. This is what ETH season looks like. And ETH season will continue for the foreseeable future, while alts find their bottom, and ETH can make as much progress versus the Bitcoin ratio as it can, while Bitcoin holds on to strength without actually gaining net new strength versus Ether. That's kind of how I'm integrating everything. Any changes to that? That's my take. What do you think?

Ben:
[15:15] I think you're right. I mean, I think it is sort of, I mean, if alts are down 44% against Ethereum since April, what else do you call it other than Ethereum season, right? I mean, basically everything in crypto, including Bitcoin, since April has been bleeding to Ethereum. Again, except for maybe a few select altcoins that I'm sure, you know, if we dug them up, we could probably find a few. But for the most part, they're all bleeding to Ethereum right now. My sort of take on it is that I think that there's, I think altcoins could still kind of hold up against Bitcoin probably for a few more weeks. If you look at, you know, if you look at the altcoin chart again, one of the things you might notice is in 2017, we had a very similar rally by altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs around the same time, like the summer of 2017, summer of 2017. And they rallied until about like late August. But what you'll notice is that they then put in a lower low in late October, right? So that's the key, I think. So in late October, altcoins put in a lower low against Bitcoin in 2017.

Ben:
[16:16] Which is what could take alt-Bitcoin pairs down here by late October, right? But when that happens, I think it will correspond to a pullback by ETH against Bitcoin, but it doesn't have to be like a massive pullback, right? I mean, it could just be kind of like what we got over here, where it goes up, consolidates a little bit, pulls back, scares everyone, and then just blasts higher again. So I think that's what's probably going to happen. I think you're going to get a pullback by ETH Bitcoin, if I had to guess, I would say sometime around like September, October. But my base case is that it will form another higher low, right? Right. And for all we know, that higher low could be higher than the price right now of Ethereum against Bitcoin. Right. It doesn't have to mean it doesn't mean it has to necessarily go back down in the 0.02s.

Ben:
[16:59] But that's what I'm thinking, because I think you'll get you had this bottom, you had a move up and then a pullback. Right. Now we're in another move up. And if it does, if it does sort of pull back September, October, it's going to take these altcoins, I think, down here. By that point by that point if alts go down here on their Bitcoin pairs while ETH Bitcoin puts in a higher low that's when you might actually see a larger move up by alt Bitcoin pairs right like after.

Ben:
[17:28] After they go to the range lows. But again, because that hasn't happened yet, and because as you said, which I would agree with, it more so leans towards Ethereum season right now. And that's supported not just by, you know, your opinion or my opinion or our bias because we hold Ethereum. It's more so guys, look, you can try to outperform Ethereum all you want. But the reality is, it's outperforming most of the rest of the market right now. So in my opinion, at the current time, and I mean, I've been saying it for months, right? At the current time, Ethereum is giving better risk adjusted returns than altcoins. Because by being an Ethereum, it's basically giving you the upside that an altcoin might get. But it's also protecting you from the downside risk, right? Because if ETH Bitcoin does get a pullback in September, October, it's likely going to take those altcoins down to even lower lows on their Bitcoin pair. So, you know, I think if you're navigating crypto right now, I think a portfolio composition of, say, Bitcoin and Ethereum makes sense. Whereas before, I would have just said, hey, just stick with Bitcoin until Ethereum goes home, until ETH Bitcoin bobs.

David:
[18:34] So we firmly have momentum on the ETH side of the market. 0.032, the current Bitcoin ETH ratio, ETH-Bitcoin ratio, is at least from my historical time in crypto, is a low number. And so the momentum traders are on board ETH. A lot of people are on board ETH to ride the momentum wave.

David:
[18:53] And I think a lot of people are asking, it's like, okay, the Ethereum community is looking for, like, let's reestablish the highs of 2021. Let's see 0.07, 0.08, 0.09. Then like there, I think there are some momentum traders who are a little bit more moderate about, you know, let's just get to mean reversion. Let's go 0.05, 0.06, call it good there. Where do you land on this kind of like destination until ETH season is over? When and where do you think ETH season is over if the charts tell you anything?

Ben:
[19:20] I think in the short term, I'm leaning towards more of the moderate view because I mean, like, I think the hard part is that if you do believe in, and I think I even outlined this when we talked about Ethereum, like back a year ago or six months ago when we talked about Ethereum going home, generally my outlook for Ethereum, and I think I even drew out this path on the interview I did with you, it was down to home, then to new all-time highs, right? Up to new all-time highs and then back down into say like the 2026 bear market, right? So, and I'm operating under that assumption because of Bitcoin tends to go in through bear markets in midterm years, right? But just because Bitcoin, if Bitcoin does go down, it doesn't mean that ETH Bitcoin has to go down the entire year, right? Like you could have an example where it goes down for part of the year, but then it starts to do better again. Because maybe by that point, the Fed's finally ending quantitative tightening. Maybe we're looking at lower interest rates. But and I think I've actually talked to your audience about this before as well. And one of the things I've noticed with ETH Bitcoin is that it's important to recognize both things. And one of those is that we've been putting in lower highs from one cycle to another. But we've also been putting in higher lows from one cycle to another. And that's what I think I said. This was like, I really am hoping that ETH puts in a higher low because it'll continue that pattern. Right. It'll sort of continue the pattern that we've seen. So what I'm looking at. Did it?

David:
[20:46] It looks like it put in a same low. It wasn't a lower low. I don't know if it was a higher low.

Ben:
[20:52] It was a slightly higher low on its Bitcoin pair.

David:
[20:55] It seems teasingly small in terms of how much higher it was.

Ben:
[20:59] I know, but hey, being technically correct is the best way to be correct, right? I mean, technically speaking, the low in 2019 was 0.016, and then this low was 0.017. All right, I'll take that. I mean, it is what it is. uh so i think my view on the ethereum bitcoin valuation is it's kind of like converging to like whatever you know the fair value is so like it's doing something like that right where like anytime it comes down here people like freak out and say it's dead and then anytime it like comes up here you know people start talking.

David:
[21:30] About the the flipping

Ben:
[21:31] Yeah yeah but i think it's really just kind of slowly trying to find whatever that fair value is and i can't say you know for sure But if you made me guess like where at least you don't remember like when when Bitcoin dominance was really low, I said like, all right, I think it's going to go to 60%. And then when it got to 60% and all Bitcoin pairs were still at 0.35, I then changed it to 66%. Right. So I think I the number of I want to say, like it's subject to revision if and when we hit it. But the number that I'm sort of looking at right now is about 0.053.

Ben:
[22:10] And I would come to that conclusion by two different ways. The first way is say, look, 0.053 is where the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation held support for a long time. So I feel like we're going to find some resistance whenever we get back up to that level. Again, it doesn't mean it can't ever break through it. It just means I think that is going to provide some resistance if and when that's hit. The other reason I would sort of look at at 0.053 as an area of interest is if you look at sort of like the Fib retracement on last cycle, ETH Bitcoin, it rallied up to the 0.5, right? The 0.5 Fib retracement, which was right here, right? That's where it ultimately topped out at. But if you project that to this cycle and say, well, what if you do the same thing again, you know, that 0.5 gets you right up to 0.053, right? That's the exact level that it would get you to. So again, you know, I'm not saying that it can't break through that. What I'm saying is, look, what I think makes the most amount of sense right now is I think it makes sense to be bullish on the ETH Bitcoin valuation.

Ben:
[23:16] If and when it hits 0.053, I think it's going to be time to sort of like reassess the market, kind of like look at look at what the macro is doing, look at what altcoins are doing. Because one thing you and I both know is that if it if we reach a point at this in this cycle, where altcoins are like, you know, screaming higher, and like you do actually if you do actually get an altcoin season, usually that is the end of the cycle, right? Like when when that stuff starts going up. So really, you know, the longer that all to bleed to Ethereum, you know, it just kind of keeps things going, right? It's when the froth of the altcoin market starts to rise. That's when Bitcoin goes to a correction. I don't really think Bitcoin needs to get a big correction just because Ethereum is going up. But if the altcoin market collectively goes up, that's usually what brings on on that correction. So for the short term, I'm looking for about 0.053, I think you're going to get one more correction before you get there where you're going to get like a higher low. And the only reason I say that is because I think there needs to be an event between now and late October that sends altcoins to their range lows on their Bitcoin pairs, even though I think it'll be a higher low for ETH on its Bitcoin.

David:
[24:27] 0.053 Bitcoin at the current price of, let's round up to $120,000. That puts Ether at $6,300, $6,400. But that's not assuming that Bitcoin stays at $120,000, correct? You think Bitcoin at least goes up?

Ben:
[24:43] Yeah, I mean, it depends on where Bitcoin goes. But if you go over to the... So we have this risk metric for Ethereum. Right now, it's kind of between 0.6 to 0.7 risk. So I mean, it's a little hot right now, but it certainly could get hotter. If it goes to, say, 0.7 risk, which is certainly feasible, because this risk metric accounts for diminishing returns, right? So it's already accounting for that. So 0.7 risk would put it at, like, 4,200. 0.75 would put it at basically the prior all-time highs. 0.8, 5,700. 0.85 would put it at around 6,700.

Ben:
[25:21] 0.9 would put it at almost 8,000, right? 0.9 would put it at almost 8,000. And you can see the big 10K would basically be kind of like, you know, pretty high risk. Like that's like, like if everything plays out perfectly from, you know, from now over the next few months, then there does exist a scenario where that happens. But I think there's going to be a lot of selling pressure up in the 0.9 to 1 wristband. And then I think you're going to get a big cool off period or 0.8 to 1. And I think you're going to get a big cool off period in 2026.

Ben:
[25:53] And then maybe then continue the party, you know, say like 2027, 2028, something like that. So that's kind of what I'm leaning towards right now. And also, there's two other things we had talked about before, like the butterfly effect video that I did, that would kind of put Ethereum somewhere between 5700 and 7500, which seems like it would match these risk metrics. And then also the last thing that I think I mentioned when we did that video was that S&P 500 fractal. I know people are going to like roll their eyes at this. That's okay. But, you know, I've followed it for a while now and it actually ended up proving quite useful. this is actually the more bullish way to look at it. Because if you look at it through this lens, it doesn't necessarily call for that 2026 pullback. Like if you look at it through the other lens. So if you look at it through this lens and you sort of overlay that fractal by the S&P 500 in the 90s, it's almost the exact same chart.

Ben:
[26:53] Where you have like, you know, that type, I mean, see, you can see how, how well it lines up, right?

David:
[26:59] What's special about the, this section of the S&P chart from the 90s? Why, why this section of all sections?

Ben:
[27:05] Because, oh, I'll tell you why. So the reason is, I'll have an answer for it. If you look at, at the U, was it US interest rates minus the two-year yield? I think that's what it, let me make sure that's what it, yeah. So if you look at interest rates minus the two-year yield. There's this trend line here, right? And we just tagged it for the third time in history, right? We tagged it in 2024. We tagged it during the financial crisis. And we tagged it in 1989. Right? So in the financial crisis, obviously, the markets fell apart. And I was trying to be optimistic and say, well, let's ignore this example. Because let's just hope the real estate market doesn't absolutely collapse and send us into a deep recession for the next like several years. Let's look at the example before that, where it hit this trend line. And that happened to be the 1989 to 1990 business. That was the 1989-1990 recession. We had a 20% drop. The stock market dropped 20%. And then it got that rally. And what we just saw, the stock market dropped 20% in April. And when you look at... That was why I went and looked at it. Because I was looking at this chart, trying to make sense of what was happening in the markets. I was like, oh, let me go see what the S&P 500 did in 1989 to 1990.

Ben:
[28:18] I went and did that. And then I saw that fractal. I just overlaid it with Ethereum back in December. I mean, I think if you look at the last interview that I did, I showed everyone this fractal. And I was like, this is why it's going to go home. It even got this pullback, right? Like this pullback that it lines up and then it's just kind of streaming higher. So, you know, there's a chance that Ethereum just kind of slowly pushes its way up here. And again, this is the more bullish view because it wouldn't call for necessarily

Ben:
[28:44] a larger pullback in 2026. Like, you know, it's the more optimistic view. It's like, well, what if it just goes sideways in 2026 or something? But yeah, I mean, that's the more the more bullish view, I guess.

David:
[28:53] Ben, so there's specific events that are happening right now. And I guess there were there was also specific events that happened when ETH went home. That was the scare of the tariff scare of earlier this year. And so there was this real world event that you had no idea was happening. But nonetheless, you were like, okay, Ethereum is going to go home at some point in time. It was this tariff scare that did that. Maybe coincidentally, maybe not. But like right now, there is the ETH treasury company meta. And there's even today at the time of recording on the 29th, there's a brand new one that just announced like $450 million of ETH putting on this new brand new treasury company balance sheet. And it's like the seventh one over the last like two months. And that's this like uniquely Ethereum thing that you couldn't really have predicted just by looking the charts. But it's the thing that is coinciding with the ETH momentum, the ETH strength over Bitcoin. And this is the thing that I think people are betting on has momentum moving forward. How do you square these in real life occurrences, themes, investment phases? Why is ETH having momentum? Well, because it's the ETH treasury events. But you would have said, oh, yeah, after ETH goes home, then ETH is going to have momentum. and you said that, you know, six months ago, a year ago before the word like treasury company was even uttered beyond just Michael Saylor. How do you square those two things?

Ben:
[30:12] Well, I guess I would argue that like, narrative follows price. And, you know, it's always easy to sort of assign a narrative to a price movement. Because think about it, in 2024, in mid 2024, I was still calling for Ethereum to go home. But the narrative back then, like, let's say I had been wrong, right? Let's say in mid 2024, I was calling for Ethereum to go home. And let's just pretend like what ended up happening was maybe Ethereum shot up to $10,000 back then, right?

Ben:
[30:40] The narrative back then would have been obvious, People would have just said, well, Ben's an idiot because he's ignoring the ETF, right? The ETF launch in mid 2024. But that was the narrative back then. But because price didn't follow, that narrative died, right? So I would argue that the narrative follows the price, right? So like if the price doesn't continue to go up, then there's this treasury company discussion, like that narrative will just quickly die. I don't think it's going to. and the reason I don't think that narrative will die is because I think Ethereum went low enough, right? I think the ETH, Bitcoin, I already think all that bad stuff that needed to happen, I think it already happened so I don't think it needs to go through that. But again, I mean, that's a great example because, you know, when the ETF was launched for Bitcoin, Bitcoin has done fine, you know, since then. But when it launched for Ethereum, it ended up basically marking a local top for like, what, the next year? So again, I think that's a kind of example of narrative following price and then when the When the price doesn't do what people think, then the narrative dies and then they just look for the next narrative. Now, why is Ethereum not going up? And then people are like, oh, it's because of higher interest rates and quantitative tightening. But had it gone up, the reason would have been it's because of the ETFs.

David:
[31:53] What about things like there are events in the future that are hypothesized as it comes to Bitcoin's future? Two main ones, one being the theoretical unsafe endgame of the Bitcoin security budget, and then also quantum computing. Both theoretical problems, but like theoretical with strengths, right? Like we know quantum computing is a thing. We know quantum computing can, you know, with sufficient time can access Bitcoins and dormant Bitcoin wallets. Theoretically, we know the Bitcoin security budget runs out. And actually with the ETH treasury companies, like four of them are Bitcoin miners that are pivoting from being a Bitcoin mining security provider to an Ethereum treasury company, which is the same thing as being an Ethereum security provider. So there's these like theoretical future things that will happen to Bitcoin that like you can't, I'm going to, you know, ascertain that you can't really see those in the charts today. But there are idiosyncratic events that like, you know, no one really knows the true outcome of these things. But like my case for, I don't like saying the F word anymore, so I'm not going to say it. But my case for like Ether taking the number one spot

Ben:
[33:00] If you're going to make that argument, you would likely invoke these things.

David:
[33:04] These like, well, the Bitcoin security budget runs out, the Ethereum, the quantum computing comes and makes Bitcoin unsafe. And then therefore, naturally, you know, ETH, which is its investments into the long term future, will take the number one spot. How would that ever show up in your charts? Or would that just be like this iniosyncratic move that's just completely unpredictable?

Ben:
[33:23] Yeah, I don't I don't think that would be a very predictable move. Like, so if that were to ever happen, which I don't think, I mean, honestly, I don't think it will. But if it were to ever happen, I would probably be on the wrong side of that. Like, I'd probably be on the, like, constantly saying it's not going to until my face gets turned off.

David:
[33:39] It being the F word?

Ben:
[33:40] Right. The flippening, right? Yeah. Like, I don't think I would ever say that's going to happen. I don't think that it will happen. You know, I know the sort of all the quantum computing risks and stuff. And, you know, I remember people talking about that back in like 2017. And, you know, that's one of those things where it's like this constant fear.

David:
[34:01] It's a boogeyman that's on the horizon.

Ben:
[34:04] Right.

David:
[34:04] It's never actually here.

Ben:
[34:05] Right. And imagine if in 2017, you know, someone said, you know, watch out for quantum computing. And then imagine if you just were out of the crypto markets for the last eight years, right? Like that wouldn't.

David:
[34:15] Totally.

Ben:
[34:15] Yeah, like it might happen in the future, but there's certain things that you just can't worry about. And if you do, and if you do spend all your time worrying about it, you'll just you'll never invest, right? Like you'll never invest. So I, yeah, I mean, it's quantum computing is a risk. But I don't, I mean, I would say if that risk ever were to play out, my guess, look, I have a very, very, I think I'm going to differ on my view here than what you said, because I think that my view would be that if Bitcoin were to die, I think it would be very negative for the rest of crypto. I don't think there is a high probability outcome where like Bitcoin dies and then other cryptocurrencies take over. I think a lot of people would just lose confidence in the asset class if that were to happen.

David:
[35:02] Yeah, I would agree with that depending on the nature of how it dies, right? If it's like if it's a straight line to zero, like the Bitcoin blockchain truly stops functioning. I both think that's unlikely and also would be very negative for crypto. I think there would just be like, it would be a very slow, like, I think the best case scenario, if you are a believer in the F word, it would be a very slow thing. It would be grinding upwards for, you know, the better part of the 2030s, honestly. I just wanted to bring up that hypothetical just because I think people's perspectives on it are interesting, especially when it comes to charts. So let me recap where i think you are ben we have it's firmly each season we have months of each season left to go two months maybe september i think is when you said then then all of a sudden like it might become alt season and that's towards the end of the cycle starting towards the end of the sea or into like q1 2026 is that that's kind of like your your general roadmap for the near-term future

Ben:
[36:00] I would say my base case is that altcoins go to the range lows by late October is my base case right now. Maybe I'm wrong, right? I mean, I also probably would have said a year ago they probably would have been there by now, right? So I don't know. It's kind of like the whole ETH going home thing, right? There's certain events that I think need to happen. It's so hard to predict exactly when. But whenever it does, it's important to pivot, right?

David:
[36:24] So right now, it's been the meta that ETH needs to go home for the last two

David:
[36:29] plus years. But ETH went home. So now it's time for alts to go home.

Ben:
[36:34] Right. And so like, because Ethereum hadn't gone home for so long, it made sense to fade ETH and to assume that ETH Bitcoin would go down. But now that it did, it makes sense to assume that ETH Bitcoin will go up. Right. But for altcoins, because they didn't go home themselves. Right. I don't call it going home for them. I just say go to the range lows because they haven't gone to the range lows. And here's the here's the great thing about it. You can almost see the narrative unfolding. Right. So, and this will be the narrative that I think people assign to it if and when it happens. Imagine if altcoins go to the range lows. Let's pretend like it's October, okay? I'm like, what are the chances we see a pullback by altcoin pairs in late October? And then sometime around that, sometime around then we start to see all these like, you know, altcoin treasury companies pop up, right?

David:
[37:19] We've already seen some. We've already seen a lightcoin treasury company, which I did not make me happy.

Ben:
[37:24] Yeah, we've seen a couple, but I do wonder, like, you know, for Bitcoin, I think it makes sense. For Ethereum, I think it still makes sense. But once you start going higher up the risk curve and you get a lot of companies misallocating capital into a lot of random altcoins, you almost start to develop the narrative for a potential 2026 bear market. You could also develop the narrative for a big bounce by altcoins whenever they do hit the range lows, just like Ethereum is getting its big bounce after it hit the range low or after it went home. So it's almost like the narrative writes itself, right? You can kind of see it. I mean, I'd be curious. Maybe we should come back on here in like three or four months and just be like, all right, well, did altcoins go to the range lows on a pullback by ETH Bitcoin? Did Ethereum go to all-time highs? My base, I would say this, just so we can check that, right? To be clear, because sometimes people say, well, you're giving more than one outcome. What I'm saying is I think all Bitcoin pairs will go to the range lows. I think Ethereum will probably go to new all-time highs.

Ben:
[38:24] And I think that the path, I think the path to all-time highs for Ethereum will be an interesting one because if you look, if you kind of look at some of these cycles, what it does is it'll go up and then it'll put in a low and then it'll go up again, put in a higher low, consolidate, and then break out to the final high for the cycle. So I wonder if that's what's about to happen with Ethereum. And so what I'm hoping, what I'm hoping is that I hope that what ends up happening is this. So I'll give you the two most likely outcomes that I see. And I'll tell you the one that I'm preferring right now. So you have 4K, which has been resistance forever, you know.

Ben:
[39:04] But I'm hoping that it just breaks through, right? I don't really want it to get rejected here. I hope it just breaks through and kind of leaves people wishing that it, you know, would drop. But then I almost wonder if it's going to kind of run to 5K, 4800 5k and then maybe get a pullback you know to like 4k or something kind of spend some time in there and then maybe break up for whatever the cycle high is going to be you know and that's kind of how i see it playing out and the other path that it it could do but i it wouldn't be as much fun is that whenever if it does get rejected at 4k again, I think the time frame to break through 4K is the next three to four weeks. Because if there is that typical weakness in like late August, September time frame, which we've seen a few times in the past, then you might get this pullback. But you see every time it's been rejected at 4K, it always then goes to like the 20-week SMA, 21-week EMA, no matter what. So if it can't break through here, then it might have to go down to the bullmark sport band first and then go up. But I will say that my base case right now is probably not back down there. Like, I would say my base case leans.

David:
[40:18] Back down, meaning all the way down to $2,700. So for the podcast listeners who can't see,

Ben:
[40:23] That's pretty much higher. Maybe a little bit higher because the 21-week EMA is already at $2,800. Okay. And it's moving up quickly. So it's going to be at $3,000 really soon, right? It'll be at $3,000 in just a few weeks. Again, I don't even think that's my base case. Like, I'm not even saying that's my base case. I'm just saying it will be my base case if in three to four weeks, if Ethereum is still not breaking through 4K, then that would turn into my base case. But for now, I think we're still in that window where it has the opportunity to just break to $4,800 now, right? Because, and the reason I say that, if you look again, if we go back to that all Bitcoin chart, remember, they showed strength in 2017. They showed strength until about late August, right? That liquidity did not flow back to Bitcoin and start until late August.

Ben:
[41:12] So if history repeats itself, and we still have about three to four more weeks of slight altcoin strength against Bitcoin, then the only reason, in my opinion, that there's going to be any strength by altcoins against Bitcoin is if ETH is going up more against Bitcoin. Because Ethereum can lift the altcoin market up, but I don't think the altcoin market is going to go anywhere if ETH isn't going up. Right. So if all Bitcoin pairs can stay strong until late August, then that in the implication is that ETH Bitcoin is staying strong until late August, meaning that the window of opportunity for Ethereum to break above 4K is between now and the next four weeks. So base case, hope that it just goes up to 4,800 between now and late August. If not, then you're going to probably get one more pullback into September. Before then it breaks through but again that's that's how i'm thinking of it right now.

David:
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Ben:
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David:
[44:59] It's the main core asset of the world's biggest smart contract chain, like all those big things. It belongs in a reserve. If we're doing the whole crypto treasury thing, like ETH should be there just alongside Bitcoin. At the same time, I'm also, again, with caution, very aware that a lot of these ETH treasury companies are pulling forward demand. And so while they are opening up capital, opening up access to new capital, TradFi capital, using some of the genius that Michael Saylor has put together, that's all great. That's like net new buyers, truly, truly new value to some degree. And it's also pulling forward demand. And so this narrative is being formed right now alongside ETH's momentum that these ETH treasury companies are going to propel ETH to new high, which is probably totally what's going to happen. And then after the all-time highs, I could totally see that same narrative flipping and be like, okay, we pulled forward demand. You know, we broke into all-time highs. ETH is 5K, ETH is 6K, ETH is 7K. And now, now that we've pulled forward demand, we've actually like run out of buyers and that's it. That's the end of the road. And then all of a sudden that narrative flips from being a bullish narrative to a bearish narrative.

David:
[46:03] And then all of a sudden we're into the 2026 bear market. How do you, how do you, did that, I can see that same narrative being bullish now and then also bearish later and it manifesting into that bear market that you kind of, kind of said, is that, is that kind of how you, how you mean?

Ben:
[46:15] Yeah, I guess. I mean, it'd be kind of like a Bitcoin, like like all the ETF flows, like maybe they start going down in 2026. So like once was a bullish catalyst, maybe turns into a bearish one, right? I just think what normally happens in these cycles is that Bitcoin goes up first, and it leads the way. And then after Ethereum goes home, it then leads the way. And if the macro holds up long enough, then the altcoins will finally get their turn at the very, very end of the cycle, right at the very end of the cycle. So yeah, like that narrative could absolutely play out. But I think the reason why this is going to happen is because first of all, you had the Bitcoin treasury companies come in and it looked risky, but it's worked out, right? At least it's worked out so far, right? So what happens when, when, when someone takes a risk and it works out, what happens? You get copycats.

David:
[47:03] Yeah, you get rewarded. Yeah.

Ben:
[47:05] Right. So then now you have people doing it for Ethereum. Look, I honestly think it's fine because I think Ethereum is going to be around for a while. Like I don't, like, I think it's a I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two things to really bet on in crypto more than anything else. And so then you have the copycats. But I think what's going to happen with the narrative, I think that the demand, it could just, maybe there is demand, but it just gets directed to the wrong place, right? So like people are going to start, instead of looking at Bitcoin and Ethereum, they're going to get distracted by all these shiny new altcoins. And I'm concerned that you're going to get a lot of greedy people that are going to launch these, you know, treasury companies for these altcoins. And it's going to be an absolute disaster. And then we're going to, I think that could, you know, could very well, you know, contribute to the narrative. Maybe we learn our lesson and maybe that's not how it goes. But, and you know, by the way, speaking of demand, one of the interesting things is the social interest right now, this is a social risk metric. It's still really low, you know? Yeah. If you were around here in 2021, you remember how euphoric and crazy it was and how many, you know, new investors there were. Even though- Dude, I was.

David:
[48:18] Getting like a thousand twitter followers a day in 2021 that did never happen not anywhere close to that anymore

Ben:
[48:23] Well because it's nothing like it i mean again look at the social interest like back then the social interest was like extremely high and today there's like no one here you know and so part of it i guess part of it is one of the risks is like what happened if people don't come back right maybe that is why it's more of a bitcoin led cycle and maybe for the next you know for for the remainder of the cycle, Ethereum as well, is because there's just not a, there's just, there hasn't been enough liquidity to go around to support the altcoin market, right? There's just because there's no one here. People are buying Bitcoin and some people are buying Ethereum. And then you have a lot of people buying altcoins, but they're all buying different altcoins. And so every altcoin individually ends up lagging Bitcoin and now they're lagging Ethereum.

David:
[49:10] Yeah, that's what I was going to ask you next. It's been, I think, the longest time ever in the crypto industry between alt seasons. Like we haven't had an alt season since the second half of 2021, really. Like we had DeFi summer in late 2020, but that was really for crypto natives. Then we had ETH season in the first half of 2021. And then we had like alt season where you had the Sol, Luna, AVAX, like crazy, crazy price action, the blow off top of late stage 2021. And, you know, we talk about these cycles in crypto, these four year cycles. Well, it's been more than four years. Like the four-year cycle has really extended itself into like six years right now. So we haven't seen an alt season since then. And so like whatever alt season is coming, I don't think is going to like be anything recognizable to the alt season that came before it. That's just kind of like my loose take simply on the fact of like crypto is such a different industry now. Like alt season was truly like NFT season plus fast layer ones. And it's just like with the social indicator so low as you showed, just whatever alt season is not going to be whatever like retail comes flooding on in because that seems to be such like a far the idea of like

Ben:
[50:21] Crypto becoming cool again in the same way that it was in 2021.

David:
[50:24] Just seems so far-fetched these

Ben:
[50:25] Days right well it's always possible that well like it's always possible that energy up just happening and it just doesn't happen until the very end of the year kind of like it did in 2017 like it there's a chance it still happens and it just happens at the end of the year i could also see you know an example where it it happens but it just kind of goes back up here to like half of bitcoin's market cap like let's say like later this year there's no guarantee i mean because look what happened. And if you really get into the nitty gritty details of it, you can see that's exactly what happened in November of 2017. It went there, got a massive pullback, basically back down to the range lows again. And then you finally got all season. But you remember, there is a lot of individual coins that don't always go back up right to their glory days. And if it can happen individually, then it could happen collectively, which is another reason why, hey, sometimes it just makes more sense to bet on on the best in the asset class. And for me, that's just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ben:
[51:26] Is it possible that you get an alt season? It is, but I don't think the conditions are aligned for it until altcoins go to the range lows, right? So I think it makes sense to fade the altseason calls until alts are at the range lows against Bitcoin. But just because they hit the range lows does not necessarily mean you get altseason because in the last cycle, the first time we hit the range lows, we did not get altseason. And the second time we hit it, we didn't get all season it was the third time we actually went below it then we finally got it so again 0.25 in my opinion is a necessary but not sufficient condition to.

David:
[51:59] Get all interesting interesting yeah and then even then there's so many alts out there that like do you really want to because like the historically all season has been like you can just throw close your eyes and throw darts and you will pick a winner like again i'm this i'm just stating anecdotally that like There just are so many more alts out there that it seems like there could be an alt season for half of the alts and not the other half.

Ben:
[52:24] Right. And I think it's just easier to sleep at night just kind of having that theory. I'm like, I don't have to worry about the idiosyncratic risk of all these different projects. I'm just like, hey, I'm dialed in. And you look, you don't have to have a basket of 10 different altcoins to make money, right? If you're just focused in on one good trade for a few months, you can make a lot of money from that one good trade.

David:
[52:44] Yeah. Ben, every time you come on, I just feel like I'm seeing the matrix. So thank you for coming on and sharing your wisdom. This is your third time that we've had you on like of in this recent saga of ETH going home, ETH arriving home, and now ETH going somewhere else,

David:
[52:59] you know, maybe a little bit higher. So if people want to learn more about Into the Cryptoverse, where you put out just like a ton of content, we put out a ton of content at Bankless, but we have two co-hosts. You are just a one man show putting out just a ton of content. If you want to learn a little bit more, where can they go?

Ben:
[53:12] Yeah, they can go to intothecryptoverse.com and they can go to my YouTube channel. They can go to my Twitter account. I'm a bit more loose lipped on Twitter than YouTube. So if you want to see me, if you want to see me get annoyed at some trolls, then go over on Twitter X and you'll see that. If you want to see more professional me, then look at YouTube.

David:
[53:35] We'll put all of those links into the show notes as well as an affiliate link to sign up for Into the Cryptoverse if you want to get a little bit more of Ben. Ben, thanks so much for coming on. Bankless Nation, you guys know the deal. Crypto is risky. You can lose what you put in, but nonetheless, we are headed west. We went home and now we're going somewhere else. Feels good. It's not for everyone, but we are glad you're with us on the bankless journey.

Ben:
[53:52] Thanks a lot.