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Citizen Daily Brief

Compounding Risks ($)

Citizen Brief: gm, more premium alpha coming your way.
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Jan 16, 20256 min read
Compounding Risks
Published on Jan 16, 2025
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Sponsor: Uniswap Labs — Uniswap Labs launched a $15.5 million bug bounty to help secure V4.

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NEED TO KNOW
America Coins?
  1. 🇺🇸 Trump Flirting with USA Coin Strategic Reserve. The New York Post reports Trump wants an America-first reserve of crypto tokens that could include SOL and XRP.
  2. 💸 Senator Lummis Threatens FDIC Over Crypto Scandal. The Republican said whistleblowers had told her documents detailing FDIC activity around crypto had been destroyed; now, she wants to take legal action.
  3. 👻 Phantom is Raising $150 Million from VCs. Crypto wallet Phantom banked a monster round from crypto's top VCs at a $3 billion valuation, Bloomberg reports.
📸
Daily Market Snapshot: It was a mixed day for crypto markets as ETH slid (-4%) alongside a number of hot recent movers like AI16Z (-16%), VIRTUAL (-13%), and PENGU (-9%). Meanwhile, XRP (+5%) continued its stellar week of Trump pumping as it drives toward overtaking its $3.84 all-time high hit back in 2018.
Prices as of 6pm ET 24hr 7d
Crypto $3.50T ↘ 0.2% ↗ 8.4%
BTC $99,935 ↗ 0.3% ↗ 8.0%
ETH $3,303 ↘ 3.5% ↗ 2.5%
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DEEP DIVE
Citizen-Only: The Morpho Trade
Bankless Analyst: Jack Inabinet

Morpho’s lending markets have exploded in popularity since October, and just last week, Morpho flipped Spark to become crypto’s second-largest onchain lending market!

From custom lending markets to a unique risk management approach, Morpho has redefined what it means to be a DeFi lending primitive. Today, we unpack Morpho’s innovative approach to lending 👇

The Morpho Basics

Morpho’s lending markets may only be available on the Ethereum and Base networks, but that hasn’t stopped the application from becoming a focal point for permissionless onchain lending in recent months.

While Aave enjoyed a brief stint as Base’s dominant lending force after flipping the total value locked inside competitor Moonwell last August, Morpho would be crowned as the new champion in the closing days of 2024. At the time of this analysis, Morpho was the second-largest onchain lending market in existence, with $2.2B in active loans and $3.7B in total value locked spread across its Ethereum and Base implementations.

Source: Token Terminal

In stark contrast to traditional lending markets, where protocol governance is responsible for mitigating the risk that a loan “goes bad” (i.e., the value of a borrower’s posted collateral falls below their borrowing amount), Morpho places the onus of preventing losses on its users.

Unlike its competitors, Morpho allows anyone to permissionlessly create custom lending markets for practically any fungible token that is compliant with Ethereum’s ERC-20 standard.

To provide some amount of protection from the risks of crypto-collateralized lending, Morpho’s UI pushes retail depositors to supply tokens into “vaults,” or actively managed lending vehicles created by third parties who use their own discretion to deploy user capital across available Morpho lending markets to earn yield.

Borrowers, on the other hand, must interact directly with the market they wish to receive a loan from but can shop around for available opportunities by collateral/loan token type, liquidation threshold, available liquidity, and borrow interest rate.

Source: Morpho

If the loan-to-value ratio of a Morpho borrower’s position exceeds the liquidation threshold established for their market, their loan becomes “unhealthy” and can be forcibly repaid. Such liquidations occur when the value of a borrower’s collateral tokens falls, the value of their loan token increases, or too much interest accrues to their position.

Like many other lending markets, Morpho relies on utilization-based interest rate curves to autonomously price interest rates based on market supply and demand dynamics. Should unused lender liquidity suddenly evaporate from a market, borrowers will be subject to egregiously high interest rates, which compel position closure and incentivize new deposits into the market.

Since protocol inception, the MORPHO token has been emitted as a borrower subsidy and lender reward. It became transferable on November 21, 2024.

As risk management responsibilities fall on lenders and market creators, MORPHO holders play a limited role in protocol governance but can vote to enable optional fees to collect up to 25% of the interest payments made in any market.

Advanced Applications

Morpho may sacrifice capital efficiency by isolating lent funds to specific borrow pools, but this trade-off enables the protocol to venture into uncharted territory that other lending platforms wouldn’t dare explore!

With the risks of insolvency isolated exclusively to lenders who opted into a given pool, Morpho can offer extremely high-leverage loans on high-risk assets that no other bluechip lending market would be willing to make.

Source: MakerBurn

MakerDAO notably composed its lending operations with Morpho beginning in late March 2024 to tap Ethena’s lucrative synthetic dollar yields and now supplies $600M of DAI liquidity (down from $750M in December) across various markets, including high-risk Pendle PT pools.

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CITIZEN-ONLY TOKEN RATING
Compound's Looming Risk
Bankless Analyst: Kazu Umemoto

Catalyst:

On July 29, the Bankless Analyst Team issued a bearish rating for COMP following a malicious governance proposal from the "Golden Boys" group, which would establish a voting supermajority by self-delegating 499k COMP from the treasury. This proposal was later withdrawn after Compound and Golden Boys came to an agreement that Compound would release a staking option for COMP holders.

While the offending proposal for Golden Boys: to take control of 499K COMP was eventually withdrawn, it raised concerning questions about the centralization of Compound’s governance. If a malicious actor, like the Golden Boys, were to whitelist their own token as borrowable collateral, they could drain all of Compound’s liquidity, leaving depositors in a tough position.

Compound has struggled to attract both lenders and borrowers to its platform in recent months; net deposits fell 8% over the past 30 days and active loans decreased by 2% over the same time period. This shows a decrease in demand for leverage due to the outlook and conditions of the market, which has led to a 2.8% decrease in revenue over the past month.

Price Impact:

The Bankless Analyst Team is reaffirming its bearish rating of COMP, citing Compound's struggle to attract depositors to its platform and concerns around low voter turnout which has made Compound's governance process more centralized due to only whales, like Golden Boys, making up the majority of the voting.


See 45+ other active token ratings in the Citizen-only Token Hub 🔥

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CHEAT SHEET
JUPuary Arrives

Market Plays:

Hot Reads:

Farming Opps:

Airdrop Hunter:


FRIEND & SPONSOR: UNISWAP

Uniswap Labs is offering the largest bug bounty ever: $15.5M for critical bugs in Uniswap v4! Built with community contributions and rigorously audited, v4 will be one of the most audited codebases ever to be deployed onchain, and continues Uniswap’s commitment to security.

Not financial or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This newsletter is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here.

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