Bitcoin's Record Month

Barring an unlikely 10%+ collapse today, Bitcoin will close March at its highest level ever! BTC captivated traders in March, but which asset fell to the wayside?

This record-breaking monthly close will mark Bitcoin’s 7th green month in a row, the longest stretch of uninterrupted gains in history!

While Bitcoin is likely to close out the month off strong, March was touch-and-go at moments, with BTC’s 18% mid-month decline serving as a gut check for bulls.

Inflows into spot BTC ETFs were strong for the first two weeks of the month but turned into outflows in the third week of March as outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) accelerated and the dip in BTC price discouraged buyers, only to flip positive during the last week as price rebounded and reinvigorated demand.

The ETH/BTC ratio is also at a historic milestone, on track for its lowest monthly close since April 2021, driven by the growing perception that spot ETH ETFs applications are denied in May.

There has been a significant lack of communication between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the proposed issuers, coming in stark contrast to what happened during the spot BTC ETF approval process.

Despite the hopes of Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer that such communication is unnecessary, as the nuances around spot crypto ETFs may have already been ironed out during the SEC’s spot BTC ETF approval process, others, including Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, maintain that the lack of communication is a bearish signal for the odds of approval.

Adding fuel to the belief that spot ETH ETFs might be denied, Fidelity filed a spot ETH ETF this week that includes staking, a feature not included in BTC ETF applications that significantly heightens the risk of denial for this application.

It is unlikely that Fidelity would risk the launch of their product on staking unless they believe that applications were already set to be rejected and aim to force a court decision on whether they can include staking in future applications in litigation that is inevitable to follow a denial.

Despite mounting fears from analysts and speculators that spot ETH ETF applications will be denied, BlackRock’s Larry Fink appears to be unbothered, moisturized by the success of IBIT and in his own lane with respect to his opinions on spot ETH ETF approval.

During a Fox Business interview this week, Fink expressed that a spot ETH ETF is still feasible, even if the SEC classifies it as a security.